China’s Great Swap: How the Nationwide ‘Trade-In’ Drive Aims to Recharge Consumption and Go Green

It’s a familiar dilemma for households everywhere: the trusty old car starts demanding more repairs, the decade-old refrigerator hums a little too loudly, or the smartphone screen seems impossibly small compared to newer models. Deciding when to upgrade is a personal calculation. But imagine that decision multiplied across hundreds of millions of households and businesses, nudged along by government policy. That’s precisely what’s happening in China right now, under a nationwide push known as “以旧换新” (yǐ jiù huàn xīn) – literally, “use the old to exchange for the new.”

Walk through any major Chinese city today, browse e-commerce platforms, or simply turn on the news, and you’ll encounter this phrase. It’s emblazoned on banners in electronics stores, featured prominently in car dealership ads, and discussed extensively in economic policy briefings. This isn’t just another seasonal sale; it’s a significant, centrally coordinated campaign designed to stimulate the economy by encouraging the replacement of aging durable goods. The scale is vast, potentially involving hundreds of millions of consumers and driving sales figures already reported in the trillions of yuan.¹ In 2024 alone, this initiative was credited with boosting sales of cars and home appliances by over 1.3 trillion yuan (roughly $180 billion USD).¹ By April 2025, officials reported that over 120 million people had benefited from subsidies, driving sales exceeding 720 billion yuan (around $100 billion USD) since the start of the year.³

But “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” is more than just an economic stimulus package. It carries the dual mandate of boosting sluggish domestic consumption while simultaneously accelerating China’s ambitious transition towards a greener, smarter economy.⁵ For Americans seeking to understand the dynamics of the world’s second-largest economy, this policy offers a fascinating window into how Beijing attempts to steer growth, tackle environmental challenges, influence consumer behavior, and potentially impact global markets for everything from electric vehicles to smart refrigerators. This article aims to unpack the complexities of China’s great trade-in drive, explaining its origins, mechanics, impact, and the broader implications for both China and the world, all from the perspective of an American observer on the ground. The government expresses confidence in these measures contributing to its economic goals, seeing potential in its vast market and the dynamism of its enterprises.⁷

Defining the Deal: What Exactly is “Yi Jiu Huan Xin”?

At its core, “以旧换新” (Yi Jiu Huan Xin) refers to a suite of government-supported programs designed to incentivize consumers and, to some extent, businesses, to trade in older, often less efficient or technologically outdated durable goods. Think cars, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, computers, and even, more recently, smartphones and home furnishings. In return for parting with the old, participants receive subsidies or discounts towards the purchase of new items, which are typically required or strongly encouraged to be more energy-efficient, environmentally friendly, or technologically advanced (“smarter”). It’s a targeted form of consumer stimulus, aiming to unlock spending potential tied up in the vast existing stock of household goods.

A Look Back: Not the First Rodeo

For those who follow the Chinese economy, the concept might ring a bell. China implemented a significant wave of similar trade-in policies between 2009 and 2011.⁶ Launched in the wake of the global financial crisis, those earlier programs, alongside initiatives like “家电下乡” (jiādiàn xiàxiāng – home appliances to the countryside), were primarily focused on boosting domestic demand to offset collapsing export markets and increasing the penetration rate of basic appliances, particularly in rural areas.

The results back then were notable. In the first half of 2010, for instance, the government reported that the car trade-in program alone had subsidized 174,000 vehicles, generating 20.5 billion yuan in new car sales, while the “home appliances to the countryside” program saw sales skyrocket.⁹ This historical precedent demonstrates that trade-in subsidies are a familiar tool in China’s economic policy toolkit.

However, the current 2024-2025 wave, launched nearly 15 years after the last major nationwide push ¹¹, operates in a different context and carries broader ambitions. While the 2009-era policies often focused on getting first-time appliances into homes, today’s initiative targets a market where basic ownership is widespread. China now has an enormous installed base of consumer durables – estimates suggest over 3.36 billion cars and more than 3 billion major appliances like refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners were in use by the end of 2023.¹⁰ Many of these items are aging, energy-inefficient, and ripe for replacement. This creates what policymakers see as a massive potential market, possibly worth trillions of yuan, waiting to be unlocked.¹⁰

The 2024/2025 Wave: Goals and Ambitions

The resurgence of “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” is driven by a confluence of pressing economic and strategic objectives:

1. Boosting Domestic Demand: This is perhaps the most immediate goal. China’s economic leadership has increasingly emphasized the importance of “expanding domestic demand” and relying on the “internal circulation” of its own economy for stable growth.⁶ This shift is partly a response to global economic uncertainties, trade tensions ¹⁷, and a persistent slowdown in the domestic real estate sector, which has traditionally been a major growth driver but now faces significant challenges. With external demand less reliable and the property market subdued, stimulating consumer spending is seen as crucial for maintaining economic momentum.⁶ The trade-in policy is viewed as a key lever to tap into the latent replacement demand within the huge existing stock of consumer durables.¹⁰ The aim is explicitly to shift consumption from a post-pandemic recovery phase towards sustained expansion.¹⁹
2. Accelerating the Green Transition and Industrial Upgrade: Unlike the earlier programs, the current initiative places a much stronger emphasis on environmental goals and technological advancement.⁵ Official policy documents, such as the State Council’s “Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in” ¹⁹, explicitly link the program to China’s targets for reducing carbon emissions and pollution. By offering preferential subsidies for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), high-efficiency appliances (often requiring specific energy-saving ratings), and smart home technology, the policy actively steers consumption towards greener and more advanced products.¹¹ This serves a dual purpose: reducing the environmental footprint of consumption and pushing Chinese manufacturers to upgrade their product lines, moving up the value chain towards more sophisticated, higher-margin goods.¹⁸
3. Meeting Rising Consumer Aspirations: The policy also aligns with the evolving demands of Chinese consumers, who increasingly seek higher quality, better performing, smarter, and more aesthetically pleasing products that contribute to a better quality of life.⁵ As incomes rise, the desire shifts from basic functionality to enhanced features, convenience, and alignment with modern lifestyles, including environmental consciousness.²² The trade-in program provides a financial incentive for consumers to act on these aspirations sooner rather than later.

The structure of the “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” policy reveals it as more than just a simple stimulus measure; it functions as a versatile instrument designed to simultaneously tackle economic growth targets, environmental objectives, industrial strategy (nudging manufacturers towards innovation), and societal desires for improved living standards. The specific targeting of types of new goods—NEVs, appliances meeting stringent energy efficiency standards—underscores that this isn’t merely about encouraging spending, but about directing how that money is spent.¹¹ Government pronouncements and economic analyses consistently highlight this dual focus on demand stimulation and structural upgrading.⁶

Furthermore, a key distinction from the 2009-era policies is the shift in focus from expanding quantity to enhancing quality. While the earlier “Appliances to the Countryside” program aimed to increase basic appliance ownership in less developed areas, the current policy is geared towards upgrading the existing vast stock of goods across the nation.⁶ The emphasis on high energy efficiency ratings (like Level 1 or 2) and smart features in the 2024/2025 program rules ²⁴ contrasts sharply with the simpler goals of the past.⁹ This evolution mirrors China’s broader economic narrative of transitioning towards “high-quality development,” prioritizing efficiency, sustainability, and technological advancement over sheer volume. The overarching goal is to establish an effective mechanism where “getting rid of the old is easier, and buying new is more desirable”.¹¹

The Nuts and Bolts: How the Trade-In Actually Works

Navigating the specifics of the “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” program can seem complex, as details often vary by product category and even by province or city. However, the core mechanics involve defined eligibility criteria, specific subsidy structures, and designated funding channels.

Who’s Eligible and What’s Covered?

The 2024/2025 trade-in wave primarily targets several key categories of consumer durables:

• Automobiles: This is a major focus area, encompassing two main tracks:

• Scrappage and Renewal (报废更新): This track incentivizes the removal of older, less environmentally friendly vehicles from the road. Initially targeting passenger cars meeting China’s “Guo III” emission standard or below, the program was expanded for 2025 to include certain “Guo IV” standard vehicles (specifically, gasoline cars registered before June 30, 2012, diesel/other fuel cars before June 30, 2014, and NEVs before Dec 31, 2018).²⁴ Consumers who scrap these eligible vehicles and purchase either a qualifying New Energy Vehicle (NEV) or a fuel-efficient gasoline car (typically with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less) receive a fixed, one-time subsidy.²⁸ While encouraging scrapping, the policy respects owners’ choices but guides them based on factors like fuel consumption, repair costs, and the available subsidy.¹⁹
• Replacement Update (置换更新): Recognizing that not all car replacements involve scrapping, many regions also offer subsidies for simply replacing an older car.¹² Under this track, consumers who sell or transfer ownership of any passenger car registered in their name and purchase a new one can receive a subsidy. These subsidies are often tiered based on the price of the new car and whether it’s an NEV or a fuel-powered vehicle.²⁴ This significantly broadens the program’s reach beyond just end-of-life vehicles.
• Home Appliances: This category covers a wide range of common household items. The program initially targeted 8 types in 2024, expanding to 12 for 2025: refrigerators (including freezers), washing machines (including dryers), televisions (including projectors), air conditioners (including central AC), computers (desktops and laptops), water heaters (including wall-hung boilers), household stoves (including integrated stoves), range hoods, plus the newly added microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers.²⁴

• The key requirement here is energy efficiency. Subsidies are typically offered for purchasing appliances meeting China’s Level 2 or higher energy (or water) efficiency standards, with an additional bonus often given for top-tier Level 1 products.²⁴ For context, these levels are part of China’s national energy efficiency labeling system, somewhat analogous to the US Energy Star program but with specific Chinese benchmarks. Level 1 represents the highest efficiency. The strong uptake of Level 1 products (reportedly over 90% of subsidized sales in 2024 ⁵) highlights the policy’s success in steering consumers towards greener options.
• Subsidies are usually capped per item and limited per consumer per category (e.g., one subsidized refrigerator per person, though often up to three air conditioners are allowed due to multi-room needs).²⁴

• Digital Products: A significant expansion for 2025, this category brings faster-turnover electronics into the fold. Subsidies are offered for purchasing new mobile phones, tablets (including educational “learning machines”), and smartwatches/fitness bands.²⁹ There’s typically a price cap on the eligible products (e.g., 6,000 yuan or about $830 USD) and a fixed percentage subsidy with a maximum amount per item.²⁹
• Home Renovation (家装厨卫焕新): This broader category supports upgrades within existing homes. It can include full or partial renovations (especially kitchens and bathrooms), purchasing materials, furniture, sanitary ware, lighting, implementing aging-friendly modifications, and buying smart home devices.¹⁹ Unlike the more standardized car and appliance subsidies, the specific items covered and subsidy levels for home renovation are often determined by local governments based on their priorities and budgets.²⁸ For example, Fujian province specified support for purchasing materials, sanitary ware, furniture/lighting, and smart home products, each with defined subsidy caps.³⁴
• Electric Bikes: Given the ubiquity of e-bikes in Chinese cities, these are also included in the trade-in push.²⁸ Implementation is largely managed at the local level.³⁷ Consumers typically receive a subsidy for scrapping an old e-bike and purchasing a new one that meets current safety and technical standards. Interestingly, some local policies may offer higher subsidies for trading in an old lithium-ion battery e-bike for a new lead-acid battery model, potentially reflecting concerns about the cost and fire safety risks associated with some older lithium batteries.³⁹

The Money Trail: Subsidies and Funding

The financial incentives are delivered primarily through direct subsidies to consumers. Common methods include:

• Instant Discount (立减立补): Many appliance and digital product subsidies are applied directly at the point of sale. Consumers verify eligibility (often via a smartphone app linked to their national ID), receive a digital coupon, and the subsidy amount is deducted from the purchase price instantly.³³
• Post-Purchase Claim: For automobiles, the process usually involves submitting an application online after both scrapping the old vehicle and purchasing the new one. Consumers upload required documents (scrappage certificate, new vehicle invoice, registration, etc.) through designated national or provincial web portals or mini-programs.²⁴

Funding for these substantial subsidies comes from a combination of central and local government coffers.²⁸ A significant portion, particularly for the 2024 and 2025 expansions, is financed through special ultra-long-term treasury bonds.² The use of these special bonds, which are earmarked for specific strategic projects and fall outside the regular government budget, signals a strong, potentially multi-year commitment to the program and avoids straining routine fiscal resources. In 2024, around 150 billion yuan (approx. $21 billion USD) from these bonds was allocated for consumer goods trade-ins ⁴², and the first batch of funding for 2025 was announced at 81 billion yuan.²

There’s a clear division of labor: the central government sets the overall policy framework, defines national standards (like car emission levels or appliance efficiency ratings), and provides a large share of the funding. The central government’s funding contribution is often weighted, providing a higher percentage of the subsidy cost (up to 95% in some cases) for less economically developed regions in the west and central parts of the country, compared to the more prosperous eastern regions.⁴² Local governments (provinces and cities) are then responsible for the detailed implementation, managing the application and disbursement processes, often supplementing central funds with their own budgets, and sometimes setting additional local rules or expanding the scope of eligible products.¹¹ However, if a locality exhausts its allocated central and provincial funds, it typically must cover any further subsidies from its own resources.³⁹

To provide a clearer picture of the incentives on offer, the table below summarizes the typical national guidelines for key categories under the expanded 2025 policy framework:

Table: Snapshot of Key 2025 National Trade-In Subsidies

Category	Example Eligibility	Typical Subsidy	Max Cap per Item/Person	Notes
Car Scrappage	Scrap pre-2012 Gas/pre-2014 Diesel/pre-2018 NEV Car	15,000 RMB (Fuel) / 20,000 RMB (NEV) fixed	N/A	For purchasing new NEV or ≤2.0L Fuel Car 27
Car Replacement	Replace any registered passenger car	Up to 13,000 RMB (Fuel) / 15,000 RMB (NEV) tiered	N/A	Max subsidy varies by new car price/type; local implementation 29
Appliances (12 types)	Buy Level 2+ efficiency appliance	15% of sales price	2,000 RMB per item	Limit 1 per category (3 for ACs) 24
Appliances (12 types)	Buy Level 1+ efficiency appliance	20% of sales price (15% base + 5% bonus)	2,000 RMB per item	Limit 1 per category (3 for ACs) 24
Digital Products	Buy Phone/Tablet/Watch (<6000 RMB price)	15% of sales price	500 RMB per item	Limit 1 per category 29
E-Bikes	Scrap old e-bike, buy new compliant one	Local Fixed Amount or Percentage	Local Cap	Varies significantly by city/province 29
Home Renovation	Old home/kitchen/bath upgrade, materials, smart home	Local Percentage or Fixed Amount	Local Cap	Varies significantly by city/province/project 29

(Note: RMB amounts are approximate conversions. Eligibility details and local variations apply. Sources: ²⁴)

Preventing Problems: Rules and Oversight

Implementing such a large-scale subsidy program inevitably carries risks of fraud, market distortion, and inefficiency. The government appears aware of these challenges and has incorporated measures to mitigate them. Efforts are underway to streamline the application process, leveraging online platforms and reducing bureaucratic hurdles to ensure faster payouts to consumers.²⁷

Simultaneously, strict rules are in place to combat abuse. Policy documents explicitly warn against submitting fraudulent claims (“骗补”), and authorities vow to investigate and penalize offenders, including clawing back disbursed funds.¹⁹ Retailers are cautioned against artificially inflating prices to offset the subsidies.¹⁹

Crucially, local governments are explicitly forbidden from imposing protectionist measures, such as requiring consumers to trade in old items or purchase new ones from specific, designated enterprises.¹⁹ This reflects a broader national push towards creating a unified domestic market and preventing local interests from hindering the policy’s effectiveness or fairness. These detailed regulations and anti-fraud provisions highlight a deliberate attempt by policymakers to strike a balance: maximizing the stimulative impact while maintaining control, ensuring funds are used appropriately, and preserving market integrity.

Ringing the Till: Early Results and Market Buzz

Since its rollout and subsequent expansion, the “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” policy has generated significant activity in the consumer market, with official channels reporting substantial figures.

Headline Numbers:

The aggregate impact appears considerable. As mentioned earlier, the 2024 iteration was credited with driving over 1.3 trillion yuan in car and appliance sales.¹ By the spring of 2025, cumulative figures suggested the program had benefited over 120 million consumers and spurred sales exceeding 720 billion yuan for the year thus far.³ Specific participation numbers released around March 2025 indicated approximately 1.3 million applications for the car trade-in subsidy, over 19 million consumers purchasing more than 25 million subsidized appliances (across the expanded 12 categories), and over 39 million consumers applying for subsidies on nearly 50 million digital products (phones, tablets, etc.).³⁵ Even regional reports point to significant local impact, such as Liaoning province attributing over 15 billion yuan in consumption to the policy in Q1 2025.⁴⁹ Holiday periods also saw marked upticks, with appliance sales during the 2024 National Day holiday week reaching nearly 18 billion yuan through the program.⁵⁰

Sector Specifics:

• Automobiles: The policy seems to be providing a noticeable lift, particularly for NEVs. National Bureau of Statistics data showed NEV sales grew 34.8% year-on-year between April and July 2024, an acceleration compared to March, coinciding with the policy’s initial launch.¹² In Fujian province, NEV retail sales surged 30.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024.⁵¹ By the end of 2024, officials reported over 6.8 million vehicles had been traded in nationwide under the program (combining scrappage and replacement).⁴⁴
• Home Appliances: This sector has seen perhaps the most visible impact. Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw strong growth, reversing previous declines.¹² Fujian reported an 18.3% increase in appliance sales by large retailers in the first four months of 2024, far outpacing the national average.⁵¹ The push for high-efficiency models has been particularly successful, with Level 1 energy/water efficiency products accounting for over 90% of subsidized sales in 2024.⁵ Between August 2024 (when appliance subsidies were increased) and April 2025, over 100 million subsidized appliance units were reportedly sold.⁵² Specific companies have reported significant gains; for example, Haier saw its air conditioner sales jump over 30% in Q1 2025, attributed partly to the policy encouraging multi-room replacements.⁵² Retailers like Suning reported massive spikes in foot traffic and trade-in sales during promotional periods like holidays.¹²
• Digital Products & Others: The inclusion of smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches in 2025 quickly garnered substantial interest, with tens of millions of subsidy applications filed within the first couple of months.³⁵ E-bike trade-ins also saw significant numbers, exceeding 1.38 million units in 2024.⁴⁴ Home renovation items accounted for roughly 60 million subsidized pieces in 2024.⁴⁴

Regional Variations:

Implementation is happening nationwide, but with local tailoring. Provinces like Zhejiang ²⁴, Fujian ³⁴, and Shanghai ³³ have published detailed local implementation rules outlining specific subsidy levels and application procedures, sometimes adding local funds or slightly different category definitions. Cities like Nanjing have focused on outreach, bringing policy information and services directly into residential communities, government offices, and businesses (“三进” activity).⁵⁴ Strong results have been reported from major economic hubs like Shenzhen, where local brands like Huawei saw significant sales boosts, and retailers like JD.com and Suning were major channels for the subsidies.⁵⁵

The evolution of the policy itself suggests a dynamic response from policymakers. The significant increase in subsidy amounts (doubling for some car categories) and the broadening of scope (adding Guo IV cars, more appliance types, digital products) for 2025 ²⁷ came after the initial 2024 rollout showed positive results.¹ This suggests that the early successes likely encouraged the government to “double down” on the strategy, leveraging the dedicated funding from special treasury bonds ⁴² to amplify the stimulus effect and further push towards green and smart consumption.

However, while the headline figures are impressive, obtaining consistent, detailed, and timely public data that breaks down the impact by specific product sub-category, region, or consumer demographic remains a challenge. Official reports often provide cumulative national totals ² or participation counts by a certain date ³⁵, making precise, real-time tracking of the policy’s nuanced effectiveness difficult for external observers. This opacity means that while the overall direction and scale of the push are clear, a granular understanding of exactly who is benefiting most and which specific incentives are proving most effective is harder to ascertain from publicly available information.

The Human Element: Why People Are (or Aren’t) Trading Up

Behind the macroeconomic goals and impressive sales figures are millions of individual decisions made by Chinese consumers. News reports and interviews offer glimpses into their motivations and experiences with the “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” programs.

Consumer Voices and Motivations:

Several key drivers emerge from consumer anecdotes:

• Financial Savings: Unsurprisingly, the direct financial benefit is a major draw. The subsidies make desired upgrades more affordable, tipping the scales for consumers who were already considering a purchase. A resident in Huizhou, Guangdong, expressed satisfaction with the car scrappage subsidy increasing from 10,000 to 20,000 yuan, calling it “pretty good for us consumers”.¹² In Hangzhou, Zhejiang, a resident named Ms. Li was pleased to buy a smart rice cooker, newly eligible for subsidies, for 599 yuan instead of the original 749 yuan.⁵³ The potential to save thousands, or even tens of thousands, of yuan, especially when combining government subsidies with retailer discounts, is a powerful incentive.⁵
• Desire for Better Products: Many consumers are motivated by the prospect of upgrading to newer models with better features, higher energy efficiency (leading to lower utility bills), smarter technology, improved performance, or simply a more modern aesthetic.⁵ One Chongqing resident, Ms. Hu, took advantage of the policy to replace her old television and washing machine, drawn by the appeal of newer, potentially more efficient models.⁵⁰ Another consumer, Ms. Peng, finally replaced an old, energy-guzzling air conditioner after realizing her summer electricity bills were exorbitant, opting for a high-efficiency model made more affordable by the trade-in policy.⁵⁷
• Convenience: The hassle factor is often a major deterrent to replacing large items. Retailers participating in the program have recognized this and frequently offer integrated services that bundle delivery of the new item, professional installation, and, crucially, the removal of the old one in a single visit.¹² Ms. Li in Hangzhou highlighted this, noting her new rice cooker arrived the same day she ordered it online, with the old one taken away simultaneously.⁵³ This “one-stop shop” approach significantly lowers the friction involved in upgrading.
• Environmental and Health Consciousness: While perhaps a secondary driver for many, awareness of energy savings, reduced emissions from newer cars, or potential health benefits from cleaner or newer appliances (like avoiding bacteria buildup in old air conditioners ⁵⁷) also plays a role for some consumers.⁵

The Experience and Potential Hurdles:

The typical consumer journey might involve learning about the policy through advertisements or store promotions, researching eligible products and subsidy levels, making a purchase either online or offline, and navigating the subsidy claim process (which might be instant or require online submission). The final step involves dealing with the old item – either having it collected by the retailer or arranging for separate recycling or disposal.

Despite efforts to streamline the process, consumers can still encounter challenges:

• The Recycling Conundrum: This appears to be a significant pain point. Many consumers report difficulty finding convenient collection points for old appliances or furniture, especially large items.⁵⁸ Even when collection services are available, the prices offered for scrap items are often perceived as very low (sometimes just 10 or 20 yuan for a washing machine), barely covering the hassle.⁵⁸ Lack of temporary storage space for the old item while waiting for collection can also be an issue.⁶⁰ This difficulty in “getting rid of the old” can directly impede the desire to “buy new”.¹⁰
• Process Complexity: While online portals and apps aim for simplicity, navigating different local rules, eligibility requirements, and digital platforms can still be confusing or intimidating for some, particularly elderly individuals who may not be comfortable with smartphone-based applications.⁵
• Subsidy Limitations: While substantial, the subsidies have caps per item and sometimes per person.²⁴ For very expensive high-end products, the fixed percentage or maximum cap might represent a smaller fraction of the total cost, potentially having less influence on the purchase decision.

The emphasis placed by major retailers like JD.com and Suning on providing seamless, integrated services—delivering the new, installing it, and taking away the old, often simultaneously—suggests a keen understanding of consumer psychology.¹² Overcoming the logistical burden and perceived hassle of disposal ⁵⁸ appears to be a critical factor in converting interest into actual purchases. For many consumers, the convenience offered by these integrated solutions may be almost as valuable as the financial subsidy itself.

Business Moves: Riding the Trade-In Wave

The “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” initiative is not just a government directive; it’s a major market event that businesses across the consumer goods landscape have actively embraced and sought to capitalize on.

Retailer Response:

Major national retailers like Suning易购 (Suning.com) and 京东 (JD.com), along with numerous regional chains and specialized stores (car dealerships, brand-specific appliance outlets), have become key players in implementing the policy.³⁸ They prominently advertise the government subsidies and frequently layer their own additional discounts, coupons, or promotional offers on top, amplifying the financial incentive for consumers.¹² Many have set up dedicated “以旧换新” zones within their physical stores and online platforms, making it easy for shoppers to identify eligible products and understand the trade-in process.⁵⁴ In Shenzhen, for example, 153 consumer electronics and appliance retailers with nearly 1300 stores participated in the local program.⁵⁵

Manufacturer Engagement:

Leading manufacturers across targeted sectors – including home appliance giants like Haier (海尔), Midea (美的), and Gree (格力), automotive players like BYD (比亚迪) and traditional automakers (e.g., FAW-Toyota, FAW-Volkswagen mentioned in Tianjin event ⁶²), and electronics brands like Huawei (华为) and Xiaomi (小米) – are deeply involved.¹² They collaborate closely with retailers on promotions, sometimes co-funding the additional discounts.⁵⁹ Many have also accelerated the launch of new products specifically designed to meet the policy’s emphasis on energy efficiency, smart features, and green credentials, aligning their R&D and marketing efforts with the national push.⁵² The policy provides a clear market signal, encouraging investment in upgrading product lines.

E-commerce Platforms:

Given the prevalence of online shopping in China, major e-commerce platforms play a crucial role.³⁸ Platforms like JD.com are frequently cited as key participants ⁵⁵, leveraging their logistics networks and digital infrastructure to facilitate the entire trade-in process. They often manage the application and verification for instant subsidies, integrate delivery and installation services, and increasingly offer streamlined old-item collection services, sometimes partnering with specialized recycling companies.¹⁹

Financial Sector Involvement:

The financial industry is also encouraged to support the initiative. Banks and other financial institutions are prompted to offer consumer credit products tailored to trade-in purchases, potentially including lower down payment requirements for car loans, preferential interest rates, or fee waivers.⁶ Events launching local trade-in campaigns often feature participation from major banks, signaling their role in facilitating these large-ticket purchases.⁶²

The enthusiastic participation of businesses underscores a symbiotic relationship between policy and commerce. The government provides the framework and core funding, creating a favorable market condition. Businesses then actively seize this opportunity, not just passively channeling subsidies but amplifying them through their own investments in marketing, additional discounts, and crucial service improvements like integrated recycling.¹² This private sector engagement, driven by the clear potential for increased sales and market share, significantly magnifies the policy’s reach and appeal, making it more effective than a simple government handout alone.

The Flip Side: Dealing with the Discards

While the “换新” (buy new) aspect of the policy grabs headlines with impressive sales figures, the “以旧” (deal with the old) component presents a monumental challenge: what happens to the millions of cars and hundreds of millions of appliances being replaced each year?.¹⁰ Estimates suggest China generates enormous volumes of electronic waste annually – potentially around 80 million TVs, 50 million refrigerators, 40 million washing machines, 60 million air conditioners, and 30 million computers needing disposal in 2023 alone.⁵⁰ If not managed properly, this deluge of discarded goods poses significant environmental risks, including the release of hazardous materials like heavy metals and refrigerants into soil and water.⁴⁵

Recycling Infrastructure Strain:

The sheer volume generated by the trade-in push puts immense pressure on China’s existing recycling and disposal infrastructure. Key challenges include:

• Insufficient and Uneven Capacity: While specialized, licensed dismantling facilities exist, their capacity and geographical distribution may not be sufficient to handle the surge, particularly in less developed or rural areas.⁵⁸
• Logistical Hurdles: Collecting bulky items like refrigerators or washing machines from individual households, especially in dense urban environments or remote rural locations, is complex and costly.¹⁹ Transporting them to centralized processing facilities adds another layer of expense.
• Lack of Standardization: There’s often a lack of clear, unified standards for collection procedures, valuation of scrap items (leading to the very low prices consumers often receive), and dismantling processes.⁵⁸ National standards are reportedly under development but may not yet be fully implemented.⁵⁸
• Specialized Handling Needs: Many appliances contain hazardous components (like CFCs/HCFCs in older refrigerators and ACs, heavy metals in electronics) that require specialized, environmentally sound handling and disposal methods.⁶⁵ Car batteries, especially from NEVs, also require careful management.
• Informal Sector Risks: The low value offered through formal channels can incentivize consumers or informal collectors to dismantle items in unregulated, environmentally harmful ways to extract valuable materials, releasing pollutants in the process.¹⁹

Government and Business Efforts:

Recognizing these challenges, policymakers and businesses are taking steps to improve the “reverse logistics” chain:

• Network Improvement: Policy documents call for enhancing the waste recycling network, establishing convenient temporary collection points in communities, and integrating appliance/electronics recycling with existing municipal waste sorting systems (“两网融合” – integration of two networks).¹⁰
• Promoting New Models: Encouragement is given to innovative approaches like “Internet + Recycling,” where consumers can schedule pickups online, and the development of professional, large-scale recycling enterprises.¹⁹
• Supporting Formal Dismantlers: Efforts are made to guide waste streams towards licensed, environmentally compliant dismantling facilities that can process items safely and efficiently.¹⁹ These facilities employ specialized equipment to recover materials like metals, plastics, and safely handle hazardous substances.⁶⁵
• Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR): There’s a push, reflected in policy discussions and academic analysis, for manufacturers to take greater responsibility for the end-of-life management of their products, potentially through funding or operating take-back and recycling schemes.⁶⁰
• Standard Development: Work is ongoing to develop and implement national standards covering various aspects of the recycling chain, from collection and transportation to dismantling and valuation.¹⁹

The experience of Sichuan Zhongzai Resource Development Co., Ltd., one of the licensed dismantling enterprises in Sichuan province, illustrates the formal process: collected appliances are logged, tagged to prevent resale, transported to the facility, sorted, and then processed on specialized dismantling lines that recover materials like copper, aluminum, iron, and plastics while safely capturing hazardous substances like refrigerants.⁶⁵

However, the scale of the challenge remains immense. The efficiency and capacity of the recycling system are critical for the long-term viability and environmental credibility of the entire “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” program. As some observers have noted, effectively managing the discarded items represents the crucial “second half of the article”.⁴⁵ Failure to create a convenient, economically sensible, and environmentally sound system for handling the “old” could ultimately dampen consumer enthusiasm for acquiring the “new” (due to the hassle and low scrap value) and undermine the policy’s green objectives. The success of the entire initiative hinges significantly on solving this end-of-life puzzle.

The Expert Take: Sustainable Boost or Flash in the Pan?

As China doubles down on its “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” strategy, economists and industry analysts are evaluating its effectiveness, sustainability, and potential pitfalls.

Effectiveness Analysis:

There’s a general consensus that the policy has provided a tangible boost to consumption, particularly in the targeted sectors of automobiles and home appliances.⁶ The significant sales figures reported ¹ are seen as evidence of its impact. Analysts point to the policy’s role in stimulating demand during a period of economic uncertainty and sluggish consumer confidence.⁶

Some attempts have been made to quantify the economic impact. Economists at UBS estimated a multiplier effect of around 1.4 for the initial 150 billion yuan allocated in 2024, suggesting it generated an additional 210 billion yuan in retail consumption beyond normal levels.⁶⁷ Ming Ming, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, suggested the multiplier could be between 1.6 and 2.0, estimating that the increased funding for 2025 could lift overall retail sales growth by nearly 1 percentage point.⁶⁸ The policy is also credited with successfully promoting the shift towards greener and smarter products, as evidenced by the high proportion of energy-efficient appliances sold under the scheme.⁵

Sustainability and Challenges:

Despite the positive initial results, questions remain about the policy’s long-term sustainability and potential drawbacks:

• Fiscal Burden: The program involves substantial government expenditure, funded significantly by special treasury bonds.⁴¹ While these bonds offer flexibility, the cumulative cost raises questions about fiscal sustainability if the program becomes a permanent fixture.⁴⁶ The central government bears the lion’s share of the cost, especially for less wealthy regions ⁴², but the long-term fiscal implications need careful consideration. The rules state that once allocated central/provincial funds are depleted, local governments must bear any additional costs ³⁹, potentially straining local budgets.
• Market Distortion and Demand Pull-Forward: A common concern with such subsidies is whether they genuinely create new demand or simply pull forward purchases that would have occurred later anyway, potentially leading to a sales slump once the subsidies end.⁴⁷ There’s also the risk of distorting consumer choices towards subsidized categories at the expense of other goods and services, although some argue the focus on durables has diminishing returns over time.⁶⁹ Analysts are watching closely to see if the boost is sustained or temporary.⁴⁷
• Recycling Capacity Bottleneck: As highlighted previously, the ability of the recycling infrastructure to cope with the massive influx of discarded goods remains a critical vulnerability.¹⁰ Failure here could undermine the entire program.
• Implementation Consistency and Complexity: Ensuring smooth, consistent, and fraud-free implementation across such a vast and diverse country is inherently challenging.¹⁹ Simplifying processes, especially for less digitally savvy consumers, and preventing local protectionism require ongoing vigilance.⁴⁶ Some businesses, particularly smaller ones, may face cash flow pressures from having to front the subsidy amounts before reimbursement.⁴⁶

Broader Context and Outlook:

Experts emphasize that “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” should be viewed within the broader context of China’s economic strategy.¹⁸ It aligns with the goals of achieving “high-quality development,” strengthening “dual circulation” (relying more on the domestic market), promoting technological self-reliance (especially in areas like NEVs and smart appliances), and meeting ambitious carbon reduction targets.¹⁴ It represents a shift towards using targeted fiscal measures to stimulate specific types of consumption, rather than relying solely on broad-based monetary easing or infrastructure spending.

Looking ahead, some analysts suggest the policy may need to be extended or further expanded to maintain momentum, especially given potential external economic pressures.⁴⁶ The significant increase in funding and scope for 2025 indicates a willingness by policymakers to sustain the effort.²⁹ International observers, like the Economist Intelligence Unit, see it as part of a policy shift towards boosting consumption, though perhaps still cautious about large-scale handouts.⁷¹

Ultimately, this nationwide trade-in campaign serves as a major real-world experiment. It tests China’s capacity to deploy targeted fiscal policy effectively, simultaneously pursuing economic, industrial, and environmental goals. Its ability to navigate the complexities of implementation, manage fiscal costs, and, crucially, solve the end-of-life recycling challenge will determine whether it provides a sustainable boost to the economy or proves to be a costly, temporary fix. The outcomes will undoubtedly influence China’s future macroeconomic management strategies.

Conclusion: Recalibrating China’s Consumption Engine

China’s massive “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” campaign is far more than a simple discount program. It represents a complex, multi-faceted policy initiative aimed at achieving several critical objectives simultaneously: stimulating a domestic economy facing headwinds, accelerating a nationwide shift towards greener and smarter technologies, upgrading the country’s industrial base, and meeting the evolving aspirations of its vast consumer population.

Launched initially in 2024 and significantly expanded in 2025 with substantial funding from special government bonds, the policy offers direct subsidies to consumers for trading in old cars, appliances, electronics, and other goods for new, often more efficient, versions. Early results indicate considerable success in driving sales, with trillions of yuan in reported turnover and participation by tens of millions of consumers.¹ Businesses, from large manufacturers like Haier and BYD to retailers like JD.com and Suning, have actively embraced the program, often adding their own incentives and streamlining services like installation and old-item removal, creating a powerful synergy between public policy and private enterprise.¹²

However, the program is not without significant challenges. The sheer volume of discarded goods generated puts immense strain on the country’s recycling infrastructure, raising concerns about environmental impact and logistical bottlenecks.¹⁰ Effectively managing this “reverse logistics” chain is arguably the most critical factor for the policy’s long-term sustainability and green credentials. Furthermore, questions persist regarding the substantial fiscal cost, the potential for market distortions or simply pulling forward future demand, and the complexities of ensuring fair and efficient implementation across the country.⁴²

From the perspective of an American observer living in China, the scale and ambition of “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” are striking. While the US has had programs like “Cash for Clunkers,” China’s initiative appears broader in scope, more deeply integrated with national industrial and environmental strategies, and implemented with a degree of top-down coordination characteristic of the Chinese system. It leverages the country’s immense market size and the state’s capacity to mobilize resources and direct economic activity towards specific goals.

Is “Yi Jiu Huan Xin” a temporary jolt to the system or the beginning of a more sustained strategy? The significant expansion and funding commitment for 2025 suggest policymakers see it as a key tool for the near future.²⁹ It aligns neatly with China’s overarching narratives of “high-quality development” and boosting domestic resilience (“dual circulation”).¹⁴ Whether it successfully recalibrates China’s consumption engine towards a more sustainable, domestically driven, and technologically advanced model remains to be seen. Its evolution will offer continued insights into the changing landscape of Chinese consumerism and the unique ways China navigates its complex economic and environmental challenges.

References

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68. “两新”政策再加码更好发挥促消费“乘数效应” – 证券时报, 访问时间为 四月 28, 2025， http://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1577154.html
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70. 经济增速怎么看——当前中国经济问答之一 – 福建省人民政府, 访问时间为 四月 28, 2025， https://www.fujian.gov.cn/jdhy/hygq/202412/t20241204_6587738.htm
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